The age of electricity is upon us, as the @International Energy Agency reported in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025. This age will be defined by increasing shares of electricity serving final energy demand, provided by increasingly decentralised and variable sources of generation. At the same time, geopolitical headwinds are raising warning flags of hybrid threats for our critical energy infrastructure. Facing down these challenges, we need a bold new approach to energy security with electricity at the nexus.
So far, it looks like the European Commission agrees. In Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen on der Leyen’s letter to Heads of State or Government ahead of the European Council (EUCO) on 23 October, she wrote:
“And as we all know: electrification should be at the core of our competitiveness, energy security, and climate objectives”
Now, the next Energy Council will see European Energy Ministers sit down to discuss, among other things, the energy – security nexus with NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte. In a modern world where society can only run as long as a smartphone battery lasts, electricity security is the same thing as energy security. And as the electricity sector representative at an EU level, we have done a lot of thinking on electricity security. That’s what we will discuss in today’s #FridayFeature.
Prepare for the worst
What has been a taboo topic for decades can no longer afford to be so – war is on the EU’s doorstep and while a full-scale attack like that of Russia’s on Ukraine will not come to pass in the foreseeable future, we still ought to think about if it did. What are the unacceptable consequences? And more pressing, what are the unacceptable consequences of hybrid attacks already baring teeth within the Bloc?
From Ukraine
In Ukraine, we know that Russia has been carrying out a campaign of targeted attacks on energy infrastructure, from transmission system substations to centralised generation and even collection substations for renewable energy sources. In our flagship study launched at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this year, we redefined energy security for the age of electricity with a case study on Ukraine’s largest private utility, DTEK’s fight for light. The lessons learned from their nearly four years of keeping the lights on under fire should be taught in the EU. Because although war is not imminent, our likely adversary is the same as Ukraine’s, making their lessons vital intelligence.
To the home front
EU critical energy infrastructure has not been left along either throughout these years either. A hybrid war is being waged by Russia against Ukraine’s supporters. We see this clearly with the sabotage of subsea interconnectors in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks like experienced by 22 Danish energy companies in 2023 and the increased sightings of drones in precarious locations. As NATO’s Secretary-General told Members of the European Parliament early this year:
“We are not at war, but we are not at peace either.”
Electricity needs resilience against attack
What this means for the electricity sector is that it needs to get prepared fast. That means physically protecting critical points in the electricity system, having crisis preparedness plans and practicing them, and ensuring robust cybersecurity and communications to counter and respond to crises that may arise. In our latest paper, Eurelectric argues that NATO’s increased spending target to 5% of national gross domestic product (GDP), and particularly the 1.5% allocated to defence-related investments in critical infrastructure, should prioritise the infrastructure that makes electrification possible and secure. Without proper preparedness, society is in a precarious position and keeping the lights on – or phone batteries charged – could quickly become about a struggle for survival.
Invest in the best
Amid this geopolitical upheaval, we are facing a challenge internally. The transition to a more decentralised, digitalised and decarbonised system based on electricity is a generational transformation that is rewriting the way we securely run the system. Our Redefining Energy Security study dug into this at length.
What is clear is that we need vast amounts of new electricity generation – clean and renewable – to serve demand for increasingly society-enabling electricity. At the same time, though, this means our electricity will be generated more sporadically, since the wind is not always blowing, nor the sun always shining. We need flexibility. Flexibility in supply so that we can store generated electricity for when it is needed, and flexibility on the demand side too so that consumers are incentivised to consume electricity when it is being abundantly generated.
To make this happen, investment is needed. Our Grids for Speed study highlighted that up to €67 billion is needed to modernise and expand distribution grids alone. Meanwhile, batteries have a long way to go and flexible generation sources cannot be written off. From the consumer side too, we need strong market signals that indicate when electricity is available (cheap) to consume so that they can shift their demand in what is called demand-side response. This is not hard security, but it is security of supply can crucial part of the energy – security nexus.
Balance the rest
A final consideration needs to be supply chains. Investment is one thing but without the equipment and inputs to build what is paid for, we aren’t going anywhere. Ember’s recent report on the Electrotech Revolution puts it quite clearly – clean technologies are coming from a highly centralised region of the world, and particularly one country – China. As we learned at the outset of Russia’s war in Ukraine, supply overdependence can be used as a means of influence to a geopolitical end.
At the same time, though, reality needs to be factored in. In Europe, we lag behind on many clean technologies, at worst lacking supply capacity overall, and at least being uncompetitive on cost. This begs the question – what is to be done?
This predicament necessitates a balancing act. On the one hand, we cannot go it alone. Without critical equipment, our energy transition is going nowhere, to say nothing of security upgrades needed in today’s volatile world. However, we can neither leave ourselves exposed to the will of potential adversaries. The right approach is one of open strategic autonomy, producing what we can as efficiently as we can in Europe while diversifying supply chains with likeminded global partners to ensure competitiveness and security. Easier said than done, but the first step is recognising the problem – the next is taking action.
Conclusion
Electricity is unquestionably at the nexus of energy and security today, highlighting exactly why energy security is a Eurelectric Presidency priority. Since our study launched at the MSC, the issue has become more and more salient. We are now in the midst of looking at preparedness in the electricity sector and are looking ahead to MSC 2026 where we intend to launch another report on preparedness’ role in our energy security. Until then, we hope this tides you over.
This blog post was originally published as part of Eurelectric’s LinkedIn Friday Features. Subscribe here to stay updated and never miss an edition.
Disclaimer: This article is for communication purposes only and may not reflect Eurelectric positions. Any positions taken in this article shall not be attributable to Eurelectric’s official positioning. Official Eurelectric positions are reflected only in position papers published here.