Electricity Prices down in Southeast Europe
In Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Greece, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia, day-ahead average electricity prices went from €120 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in July-August to around €90 per MWh in October. Two main factors explain this decrease:
- Lower electricity demand as the summer season is over, with a 12% decrease between July and October in these countries’ combined demand
- Increased hydro, nuclear and wind power generation
Interestingly, gas did not play a role in it. While electricity prices went down, the average monthly gas price didn’t change much, although there were up and down fluctuations.
Back in the summer, the price surge was the result of a higher regional power demand for cooling during heat waves, a dip in hydro and nuclear production which was offset by expensive gas power, limited interconnection capacities and most importantly, a lack of flexibility. Contrary to what the Greek Prime Minister voiced in September, increased power exports to Ukraine impacted power prices only to a minor extent.
Price volatility in summer 2024 was up by more than 100% compared to 2023. The highest volatility mainly occurred during evening hours when there is more electricity demand and solar power disappears from the power mix. In Greece, for example, solar was mainly offset by expensive gas, which drove up prices. Alternative flexible resources and more renewable technologies can help reduce these price peaks.
Despite a lower solar share, negative price instances rose from 94 to 160, mainly in Finland and Sweden due to higher wind and nuclear output.
If prices went down in Southeast Europe, the same cannot be said for Germany. In early November, Germany’s spot prices spiked to €820 per MWh on 6 November at 17:00. This was due to minimal wind generation, dropping to just 0.2% of the power mix. Eastern neighbours experienced similar price surges.
Power supply: coal is up in Germany, Czechia and Slovenia
On the supply side, on the contrary, electricity generation grew month-on-month across the EU, with hydropower adding 7 terawatt-hours (TWh) followed closely by a 5 TWh rise in coal generation. This shift was mainly caused by higher gas prices, which made coal a more competitive option for fuel switching. Nuclear and wind showed marginal gains, while solar photovoltaic (PV) generation declined by 4.3% due to reduced sunlight.
Last month, Germany, Czechia and Slovenia recorded a remarkable increase in coal-fired power in the EU, with a month-on-month rise of 28%, 28% and 30%, respectively. As one of the few European markets with substantial coal and gas capacity, Germany remains particularly responsive to price shifts in both markets.
When looking at the year-on-year trends in the EU, however, the share of renewables has grown by 1.9%, while coal went from 11.8% in October 2023 to 10.6% in October 2024, confirming a structural decline.
CO2 emissions
More coal-based power generation translated into a higher CO2 intensity in the power sector in October compared to September. However, October 2024’s CO2 intensity of 165 gCO2/kWh remains significantly lower than in October 2023 which amounted to 201 gCO2/kWh.