KEY MESSAGES/EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Ten-Year National Development Plan (TYNDP) is an important tool to support Europe’s decarbonisation strategy. Based on robust scenarios, the responsibility of ENTSO-E and ENTSOG is to identify future infrastructure needs in order to support an integrated & decarbonised energy system while ensuring security of supply. The TYNDP is also a relevant document to support the work of all the parties engaged in achieving our climate objectives.
- Any scenario developed to shape Europe’s future should be compliant with the EU’s 2030 and 2050 targets. We welcome that the Global Ambition (GA) and the Distributed Energy (DE) scenarios are built in line with the Paris Agreement. However, the National Trend (NT) scenario, based on the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) is not meeting the long-term goal of the Paris agreement because its emissions trajectory exceeds any pathway for carbon neutrality by mid-century. Unless the NECPs are complemented with credible and effective policies, NT scenario should not be considered as the central policy scenario, guide the other scenarios nor be used to select the Project of Common Interest or planning purposes.
- Transparency and inclusiveness are the key drivers of the TYNDP development. These two values have been strengthened in the scenario building exercise for the 2022 edition. Eurelectric has noted more clarity on the way stakeholders are informed and consulted during the different stages of the TYNDP development, especially the scenarios building. We strongly encourage the ENTSOs to maintain high considerations to stakeholders’ engagement, to keep strengthening it (e.g. by better involving DSOs, explicit treatment of energy storage, etc) and adapt it to the revised TEN-E Regulation.
- Electrification is a direct, effective, and efficient way of reaching carbon neutrality. The direct electricity demand projected by GA and DE scenarios (respectively 36% and 47%) remains low compared to the European Commission 2030 impact Assessment (from 46 to 50%). Eurelectric would welcome a more ambitious electrification rate in one of the scenarios with more applications using electricity directly (especially in the transport sector), underlying both energy and cost efficiency gains in close connection with consensus assumptions on technology costs and commodity prices.
- The coupling of different energy carriers is now included in the TYNDP. The impacts of sector coupling are better reflected in the modelling and the scenario results. However, the current approach (which is limited to electricity and hydrogen) is likely to undervalue the benefits of system integration that could be achieved with a more integrated and comprehensive view on the energy systems, esp. for achieving the decarbonisation targets in cost-efficient way for the consumers.