The coming storm: Building electricity resilience to extreme weather

Technical advisor

Unrivalled challenges

The European power system is facing unrivalled challenges. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked an unprecedented energy crisis. The time is now for decisive action to transition away from imported fossil fuels to a clean, renewable electricity supply where electrification becomes key to regaining our energy independence. However, such progress toward a decarbonised and electrified Europe must come with guarantees on the resilience, security, and reliability of the energy system.

1.5°C by 2030: a dramatic increase in extreme weather events

The latest projections suggest that the world is well on its way to over 1.5°C of warming by 2030 and each season brings further proof that climate change is causing more and more extreme weather events.

Such an increase will affect us all. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a rise in extreme heat, fire weather, heavy precipitation, rainfall flooding, sea level rise, coastal flooding, and severe windstorms across Europe. Droughts are expected to increase in the Mediterranean and Western & Central Europe. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation, mean precipitation and rainfall flooding are expected to increase across Northern Europe. Management and planning for these challenges are essential to the energy security of communities and businesses across Europe.

Devastating 1-in-10-year events are becoming more frequent

All of Europe will experience their effects

The IPCC has identified four zones in Europe where climate change will have a different impact. In the Mediterranean region as well as in Western and Central Europe there will be more frequent droughts, whereas Northern Europe will be increasingly exposed to heavy precipitations and rain flooding.

Meanwhile, all of Europe will experience more extreme heat, fire weather, sea level rise, coastal flooding, and severe windstorms.

Power system assets are exposed

All assets in the electricity value chain are exposed to the effects of this growing number of extreme weather events, from electricity generation and transmission to distribution and the final customer.

Generation assets

Transmission and distribution

Europe must become better prepared

More adaptation measures needed for a warming continent

Extreme weather dominates power crisis scenarios

The power system already has a host of adaptation measures available for the management of climate hazards. These include physical hardening and uprating of networks, physical protection measures, additional water spill gates for hydropower dams, resizing of thermal and nuclear plant cooling systems, additional redundancy of grid design, preparedness planning, backup systems, and digital tools to enhance visibility and management of the energy system down to low power voltage levels. 

Adaptation measures for generation assets

Adaptation measures of transmission and distribution assets in Europe

Invest now to avoid higher costs later

Eurelectric’s Connecting the Dots report estimated that €33 billion would be required in the decade 2020-2030 to support distribution system resilience. Notably, this figure predates the higher ambitions of the REPowerEU plan, so the necessary energy system resilience investments need to be scaled up appropriately and must be complemented by investments in generation and storage.

Resilience is a growing component of grid investment

Such funds are critical to the realisation of Europe’s electrification and decarbonisation objectives. Investment in growing the system share of renewable energy sources, with lower wholesale prices, and the flexibility opportunities provided by new technologies and services, will reduce Europe’s dependence on imported gas. Connecting the Dots estimated that the net increase in customers’ bills arising from distribution investments should amount to only 1,5% per annum. 

As standard policy, regulators should promote investment in grid resilience and promote a Resilience Incentive Mechanism to stimulate the uptake of adaptation measures and smart grid technologies like smart meters and automation. Such a program by design would enhance the reliability of a clean, distributed energy system and reduce the possibility of disruptions.

An integrated approach to climate change

Tackle adaptation and mitigation together

It is clear today that mitigation and adaptation can no longer be tackled in silos. A failure to reach energy decarbonisation goals could result in increased adaptation costs in the long term, and a failure to adapt to climate change could be devastating for the European economy. Indeed, the price of inaction now far outweighs the cost of building sustainable, resilient communities. Nowhere is this truer than regarding Europe’s crucial electricity infrastructure.

Conversely, the benefits of such a reinforced system will reverberate through society by acting as a solid foundation for the widespread electrification of transport, heating and cooling, and industrial processes and the integration of renewable and clean energy sources. This, in turn, will benefit mitigation by reducing direct emissions and adaptation by facilitating the flexibility of the grid. The latter then lowers costs for final customers by reducing demand peaks and the need for expensive hardening of the grid.

Countries need to better anticipate risks

The cost of doing nothing, while climate change provokes more extreme weather events, will be felt throughout all of society and quickly outstrip the investment needs of a digitalised and modernised energy system.

Increase coordination to strengthen resilience

An energy policy framework that boosts coordination and communication between all power sector stakeholders is needed. These stakeholders are heavily interdependent, both between themselves and external parties such as suppliers and telecom providers.

• To improve the implementation of the Risk Preparedness Regulation, where each competent national authority must establish a risk-preparedness management plan, it is vital that grid operators and market actors are effectively consulted.
• Given the exposure of energy system assets, this same attitude of cooperation must also be applied to the proposed Resilience of Critical Entities Directive (CER).
• Strong coordination also means consistent and transparent methodologies for assessing climate risk and informing resilience strategies so that both utilities and external stakeholders have confidence in the solutions applied
• An integrated approach that brings together national climate adaptation plans and market actors’ investment projections is key to securing the resources needed to construct a truly resilient grid.

Eurelectric overarching recommendations

Policy Recommendations

European Commission

• Re-organise EU climate adaptation funding 
• Involve all energy sector stakeholders in climate adaptation  
• Electricity market design needs to consider its effect on the resilience of the power system 
• Flexibility market design should go hand in hand with physical system design 

National Regulatory Authorities

• Incentivise resilience investments 
• Integrate national climate adaptation plans and company investment plans 
• Digital investments by system operators should be remunerated and incentivised  

Best Practices for utilities

• Establish emergency management teams, with clearly defined roles, responsibilities, and resources, when an extreme event is forecasted to impact the power system 
• Adopt a multimedia approach to providing information to the public, including traditional and social media
• Consider redundancy in the design, operation and maintenance of the power system, accounting for dependencies 
• Use cost-benefit analysis and a consistent impact assessment framework for specific adaptation measures
• Support resource sharing between neighbouring system operators
• Customer flexibility and DER can support the system during extreme weather events

EPRI served as a technical advisor, and did not verify all statements in this report, with its contributions limited exclusively to providing technical and historical perspective(s) to Eurelectric. EPRI is an independent, non-profit energy research and development organization. Any and all policy or advocacy
statements or recommendations expressed or conveyed in this report are attributable solely to Eurelectric and do not reflect the opinions of EPRI, its
members, or affiliates.