This week, the European Commission proposed a landmark regulation to phase out fossil fuel imports from Russia by 2027, beginning the final chapter of Europe’s most complex energy relationship and reaffirming the EU’s path toward energy sovereignty, resilience and clean power.
The road we’ve travelled
Europe’s longstanding energy dependence on Russia has shaped both markets and politics. For years, fossil fuels from the east contributed to Europe’s energy mix, powering industry and heating homes. But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fundamentally changed the equation. The weaponisation of energy by Russia, and the subsequent energy crisis, exposed Europe’s vulnerability.
Since then, the EU has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels – thanks in large part to the REPowerEU plan launched in 2022. As the Commission reports, coal imports have stopped entirely. Russian oil has dropped from 27% of EU supply at the start of 2022 to just 3% in 2024. Gas flows – both in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG) and pipeline – have also declined, falling from 45% in 2021 to 19% in 2024, with projections pointing to a further drop to 13% in 2025 as transit through Ukraine ends. While Russian gas has not yet disappeared from Europe’s energy mix, the Commission argues that even a small level of dependency is no longer sustainable.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent attempts to starve Europe of gas have made one thing clear: our dependence on Russian fossil fuels is untenable… We welcome the Commission’s effort to put an end to it.
With this phase out proposal, the EU isn’t just reacting to the past – it’s setting the tone for the future.
The road ahead
The Commission’s proposed legislative text outlines a coordinated, gradual plan to cut off Russian gas and oil imports over the next three years. The aim? To reduce market exposure and risk to security of supply while redirecting Europe’s energy trade relationships toward more reliable partners.
Here’s how the timeline unfolds:
The proposed legislation also addresses traceability and transparency. Everyone who holds a contract with a Russian supplier will be required to disclose it to the Commission while all importers will have to provide detailed information to national authorities and the European Commission, including contract partners, production origin, delivery points, volumes, flexibility clauses and suspension terms. LNG cargoes will face additional scrutiny – covering points of loading, delivery schedules and ownership structures.
Countries still importing Russian oil and gas will also be required to submit national diversification plans by 1 March 2026, with measurable milestones for transitioning away from Russian supplies. These plans must cover both direct and indirect imports as well as outline concrete replacement strategies.
The message is clear: the EU is drawing a line under a volatile chapter and building safeguards for a more secure future.
The focus on a gradual transition and the emphasis on security of supply are both pragmatic and necessary, electrification remains the clearest path forward – but it must be smart, flexible, and supported by firm capacity to keep the lights on and Europe competitive.
Questions, questions…
Naturally, a transition of this scale sparks a few follow-ups. As the EU pushes forward with its transition to a more resilient energy system, it’s only fair to ask what the shift means in practice – for energy security, prices and citizens across the Bloc.
Will Europe be able to keep the lights on? …
On this, the Commission is firm: yes, Europe will stay powered. The phase-out will be gradual, flexible and closely coordinated with Member States. As electrification picks up speed and clean technologies expand, the role of fossil fuels in Europe’s energy mix is already shrinking (if you want to see some numbers take a look at Elda).
At the same time, growing investment in renewables, smarter consumption and increasing grid flexibility are helping to stabilise electricity systems and strengthen resilience. The transition won’t happen overnight, but it’s moving steadily and with a clear direction. And most importantly, it’s designed to keep the lights on.
For more on redefining energy security and Europe’s path to energy sovereignty, check out our security of supply report presented at the Munich Security Conference last February.
What about energy bills?
The transition will require coordination, but overall, the broader outlook is reassuring: global LNG supply is ramping up, but overall EU gas demand has been declining. That is thanks to efficiency gains, electrification, and emerging technologies – from demand response to energy storage – that are set to play an increasing role.
In other words, the shift toward clean and homegrown energy sources offers a more stable and predictable path forward. By scaling up renewables and reducing dependence on imported fossil-fuels, Europe can better manage costs and build long-term resilience.
With strategic investment and sound planning, the clean transition won’t just pay off environmentally – it will make energy more affordable and resilient.
Not without reservations
Every bold proposal brings its share of scepticism – and this one is no exception.
One point of debate concerns existing contracts. The Commission argues that the legal framing of this regulation qualifies as force majeure, and that therefore, this will allow companies to exit long-term deals without liability. In reality, legal scholars and industry voices are divided. Some say it’s a strong case. Others argue that force majeure typically applies to unforeseeable events – and after years of signalling a phaseout of Russian gas, doing it now, hardly qualifies as a surprise.
And then come the questions from Member States. Hungary and Slovakia, which still rely heavily on Russian supplies, have voiced strong opposition. Both have warned of possible energy insecurity and rising costs for households. Still, even with this resistance, momentum appears to be on the Commission’s side. As things stand, there is no formal blocking majority – and procedural hurdles are limited. The real test will lie in how quickly Member States can replace remaining imports, how persuasively they can make the case for change at home and where the majority lies in the Parliament.
A cleaner way forward
Despite the debate, one thing is clear: Europe is not just cutting ties – it’s building a stronger foundation.
The final phase-out of Russian fossil fuels marks a pivotal moment in the EU’s energy transition, but it’s also just one part of a broader transformation. From renewables to digitalisation, and flexibility to grid upgrades, electricity is emerging not just as a clean solution – but as the strategic one.
And if you want to stay on top of how this story unfolds, here are a few dates to watch:
Contexte reports that on 23 June, the Commission will present its impact assessment to Member States’ attachés in charge of energy, trade and legal affairs. Starting the 26th of June, these experts will then start a detailed review of the text, but the first drafts of the Council’s proposal will only be written under the Danish presidency, which begins on 1 July.
Disclaimer: This article is for communication purposes only and may not reflect Eurelectric positions. Any positions taken in this article shall not be attributable to Eurelectric’s official positioning. Official Eurelectric positions are reflected only in position papers published here.