The new report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050, assesses the transformation needed in the energy system to limit the average global temperature rise to “well below 2°C”. According to this roadmap, a combination of renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide over 90% of the necessary energy-related CO₂ emission reductions, based on existing technologies. The report stresses that renewable energy must be scaled up at least six times faster to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
The report was launched at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue organised by Germany’s Federal Foreign Office last week. It is the latest publication in the IRENA’s Remap (“Renewable Energy Roadmaps”) programme whose aim is to assess the potential for countries, regions and the world to scale up renewables.
Based on the fact that current emission trends are not on track to fulfill the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the report concludes that energy efficiency and renewable energy are the optimal combination to deliver the necessary cut in emissions and that they can provide over 90% of reductions using widely available and affordable technologies. Overall, the share of renewable must increase from 17% of the total primary energy supply in 2017 to around 65% by 2050 (70% in the European Union). In parallel, energy intensity must decrease by 2.8% every year on average until 2050, compared to the average 1.8% observed in recent years.
For the power sector, it translates into an 85% share of renewable energy by 2050 compared to 25% in 2017, mainly from growth in solar and wind. The power sector has already made significant progress in recent years, but this must speed up according to IRENA, in particular as costs of renewable energy technologies continue to fall. This transformation of the power sector will also require deep changes in the way power systems are planned and operated. IRENA estimates that 24.6 USD trillion will need to be invested globally in the power sector with an additional 18 USD trillion in system flexibility and grids.
The report also considers the changes needed in the transport, industry and building sectors. In transport, the share of renewable energy would increase to 58% (from 4% today) while the share of electricity in the final energy use would represent 33% (compared to 1% today). Total investment in decarbonisation for the transport sector until 2050 would amount to 14.2 USD trillion. In industry, the share of renewable energy would increase to 63% (from 14% today) while the share of electricity in the final energy use would represent 42% (compared to 27% today). Total investment for the industry sector would amount to 5 USD trillion.
In buildings, the share of renewable energy would increase to 77% (from 36% today) while the share of electricity in the final energy use would represent 56% (compared to 31% today). Total investment for the buildings sector would amount to 39.6 USD trillion. For this sector, energy efficiency will be a crucial factor, but IRENA considers that the current rate of renovation of the exiting building stock which stands at 1% must increase three-fold.