Power Barometer 2026
The power
proof
Europe’s electricity transition is no longer a promise. The data shows where it is working – and where the system must move faster.
Introduction
The power proof
The Iran shock hit oil and gas hard; power barely moved. Spain vs. Italy shows why. Gas is retreating from the merit order. Clean power hit a record high.
When the Iran conflict sent oil and gas prices surging by 40% this spring, European power prices fell. That decoupling is not an accident – it is the result of a decade of investment in clean, domestic electricity. This first act presents the proof: markets that have built high shares of renewables have structurally insulated themselves from fossil fuel shocks. Spain barely flinched. Italy suffered. The difference was not geography or luck – it was the carbon content of their grids. The energy security case for electrification is no longer theoretical. It is in the data.
01
Hormuz blockade
While the Iran – US conflict consistently drove oil and gas prices sharply higher in the months after February 2026, power prices were consistently lower than February levels suggesting that the oil shock had only a limited immediate spillover effect on electricity markets.
Slide deck - Free version