Long-term analyses of energy demand – Enerdata’s project for Schneider Electric

Case study: Long-term analyses of energy demand – Enerdata’s project for Schneider Electric

Enerdata is an independent research company that specialises in the analysis and forecasting of energy and climate issues.

Schneider Electric chose Enerdata to conduct a comprehensive, long-term analysis of global energy consumption, with a specific focus on key countries such as China, India and the United States. The objective of this was to contribute valuable insights to Schneider Electric’s long-term strategy and enhance its role as a think tank in the debate surrounding the global energy transition.

To implement its energy and climate strategy effectively, Schneider Electric needed a forecasting model enabling the simulation of proactive scenarios, aiming for a net-zero emissions target by 2050 and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Firstly, Schneider Electric sought a comprehensive understanding of its vision for energy demand. This involved using aggregated data and adopting a multi-energy approach to provide a broader perspective of energy trends and decarbonisation drivers across sectors at both global and key country levels.

Secondly, Schneider Electric selected an energy and climate forecasting scenarios considering a 2°C to 2.5°C temperature increase by 2050. To achieve this, the team required highly scalable scenarios to simulate significant technological and behavioural disruptions.

Lastly, contrary to the typical focus on Western countries in ambitious scenarios, Schneider Electric aimed to broaden the scope of its analysis. This expansion included conducting baseline and net-zero target analyses on a global scale.

Deployed solutions:

Development of customised energy and climate scenarios

• Starting from a baseline scenario representing the default evolution of global energy systems, Enerdata and Schneider collaboratively developed two customised scenarios:
  • The "New Normal" scenario envisions a future where essential transformations in energy demand come with innovations, minimising reliance on specific policies.
  • The "Back to 2050" scenario is a backward-looking exploration assessing the policies needed to bridge the gap for achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050.
• Generation of a comprehensive set of assumptions for each region and scenario, delving into sectoral details (e.g., electrification levels, demand disruptions, cross-sectoral interactions)
• Incorporation of these assumptions into our POLES-Enerdata model
• Refinement and calibration of the model to provide the final long-term energy scenarios.

Collaborative workshops

• Collaborative creation of energy and climate hypotheses for each sector (Industry, Transport, Residential) and region

Compilation of Study Findings

• Presentation of comprehensive analyses and results in the study’s report

“We selected Enerdata for its long-lasting experience in developing energy models for long-term scenarios. […] Enedata’s contribution to the project was essential to the success of our project.”

Vincent Minier, VP Energy Research, Global Strategy & Sustainability at Schneider Electric